F5 Predictions

First 5 Innings Model V1 — model confidence only, no sportsbook edge
« Prev Jul 5, 2026 Next »

15 game(s)

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals NoPlay F5
F5 Win Probability
Pittsburgh Pirates
48.4%
Washington Nationals
51.6%
No side meets confidence threshold
2.92
Pittsburgh Pirates Runs
6.35
Total
3.43
Washington Nationals Runs
Pittsburgh Pirates
Washington Nationals
Starting Pitchers
Bubba Chandler Starter Cade Cavalli
4.82 ERA 3.88
1.44 WHIP 1.38
Recent Offense
6.83 L7 RPG 3.80
6.12 L30 RPG 5.15
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Washington Nationals Cade Cavalli (3.69 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 10.2 K/9) vs Pittsburgh Pirates Bubba Chandler (4.62 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 8.4 K/9). Washington Nationals offense: 5.33 RPG season, 6.17 L7, 5.52 L30. Pittsburgh Pirates offense: 5.16 RPG season, 6.29 L7, 5.15 L30. Model F5: Washington Nationals 51.6% / Pittsburgh Pirates 48.4%. Projected: Washington Nationals 3.43, Pittsburgh Pirates 2.92 (total 6.35). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 1.6% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers StrongBet F5
F5 Win Probability
Detroit Tigers ★
58.5%
Texas Rangers
41.5%
2.73
Detroit Tigers Runs
4.32
Total
1.59
Texas Rangers Runs
Detroit Tigers ★
Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers
Casey Mize Starter Kumar Rocker
2.64 ERA 3.95
0.98 WHIP 1.34
Recent Offense
4.67 L7 RPG 5.33
4.76 L30 RPG 4.62
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Texas Rangers Kumar Rocker (3.83 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 7.9 K/9) vs Detroit Tigers Casey Mize (2.63 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 9.4 K/9). Texas Rangers offense: 4.09 RPG season, 4.50 L7, 4.26 L30. Detroit Tigers offense: 4.19 RPG season, 5.67 L7, 4.81 L30. Model F5: Texas Rangers 41.5% / Detroit Tigers 58.5%. Projected: Texas Rangers 1.59, Detroit Tigers 2.73 (total 4.32). Lean: Detroit Tigers F5 ML (StrongBet).

Confidence: 8.5% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners NoPlay F5
F5 Win Probability
Toronto Blue Jays
49.1%
Seattle Mariners
50.9%
No side meets confidence threshold
1.32
Toronto Blue Jays Runs
3.32
Total
2.00
Seattle Mariners Runs
Toronto Blue Jays
Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers
Trey Yesavage Starter Emerson Hancock
3.31 ERA 3.23
1.08 WHIP 1.01
Recent Offense
7.00 L7 RPG 3.33
4.08 L30 RPG 3.28
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Seattle Mariners Emerson Hancock (3.47 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 8.7 K/9) vs Toronto Blue Jays Trey Yesavage (3.34 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.2 K/9). Seattle Mariners offense: 4.09 RPG season, 5.17 L7, 3.74 L30. Toronto Blue Jays offense: 4.00 RPG season, 2.50 L7, 3.81 L30. Model F5: Seattle Mariners 50.9% / Toronto Blue Jays 49.1%. Projected: Seattle Mariners 2.00, Toronto Blue Jays 1.32 (total 3.32). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 0.9% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees Bet F5
F5 Win Probability
Minnesota Twins ★
55.2%
New York Yankees
44.8%
2.82
Minnesota Twins Runs
4.54
Total
1.72
New York Yankees Runs
Minnesota Twins ★
New York Yankees
Starting Pitchers
Joe Ryan Starter Ryan Weathers
2.85 ERA 4.29
1.04 WHIP 1.25
Recent Offense
3.83 L7 RPG 5.00
5.52 L30 RPG 4.15
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: New York Yankees Ryan Weathers (4.08 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10.0 K/9) vs Minnesota Twins Joe Ryan (3.61 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 10.5 K/9). New York Yankees offense: 4.84 RPG season, 3.50 L7, 4.27 L30. Minnesota Twins offense: 4.91 RPG season, 5.50 L7, 5.62 L30. Model F5: New York Yankees 44.8% / Minnesota Twins 55.2%. Projected: New York Yankees 1.72, Minnesota Twins 2.82 (total 4.54). Lean: Minnesota Twins F5 ML (Bet).

Confidence: 5.2% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers Bet F5
F5 Win Probability
San Diego Padres
43.9%
Los Angeles Dodgers ★
56.1%
2.17
San Diego Padres Runs
6.92
Total
4.75
Los Angeles Dodgers Runs
San Diego Padres
★ Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting Pitchers
JP Sears Starter Emmet Sheehan
4.70 ERA 4.91
1.37 WHIP 1.27
Recent Offense
5.17 L7 RPG 3.00
4.15 L30 RPG 4.77
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Los Angeles Dodgers Emmet Sheehan (5.08 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 10.1 K/9) vs San Diego Padres JP Sears (6.97 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 8.1 K/9). Los Angeles Dodgers offense: 5.34 RPG season, 6.00 L7, 5.59 L30. San Diego Padres offense: 3.90 RPG season, 3.43 L7, 4.00 L30. Model F5: Los Angeles Dodgers 56.1% / San Diego Padres 43.9%. Projected: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.75, San Diego Padres 2.17 (total 6.92). Lean: Los Angeles Dodgers F5 ML (Bet).

Confidence: 6.1% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels StrongBet F5
F5 Win Probability
Boston Red Sox ★
62.7%
Los Angeles Angels
37.3%
3.51
Boston Red Sox Runs
4.72
Total
1.21
Los Angeles Angels Runs
Boston Red Sox ★
Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers
Ranger Suarez Starter Ryan Johnson
2.94 ERA 6.99
1.13 WHIP 1.55
Recent Offense
4.67 L7 RPG 5.17
4.27 L30 RPG 4.23
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Los Angeles Angels Ryan Johnson (7.40 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 6.7 K/9) vs Boston Red Sox Ranger Suarez (2.94 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.4 K/9). Los Angeles Angels offense: 4.38 RPG season, 2.00 L7, 4.37 L30. Boston Red Sox offense: 4.02 RPG season, 4.50 L7, 4.12 L30. Model F5: Los Angeles Angels 37.3% / Boston Red Sox 62.7%. Projected: Los Angeles Angels 1.21, Boston Red Sox 3.51 (total 4.72). Lean: Boston Red Sox F5 ML (StrongBet).

Confidence: 12.7% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals Bet F5
F5 Win Probability
Philadelphia Phillies ★
55.2%
Kansas City Royals
44.8%
4.14
Philadelphia Phillies Runs
6.43
Total
2.29
Kansas City Royals Runs
Philadelphia Phillies ★
Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers
Aaron Nola Starter Luinder Avila
5.87 ERA 5.05
1.46 WHIP 1.59
Recent Offense
3.50 L7 RPG 4.50
5.15 L30 RPG 4.89
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Kansas City Royals Luinder Avila (5.40 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 8.4 K/9) vs Philadelphia Phillies Aaron Nola (6.04 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 9.2 K/9). Kansas City Royals offense: 4.09 RPG season, 2.40 L7, 4.54 L30. Philadelphia Phillies offense: 4.49 RPG season, 6.17 L7, 5.85 L30. Model F5: Kansas City Royals 44.8% / Philadelphia Phillies 55.2%. Projected: Kansas City Royals 2.29, Philadelphia Phillies 4.14 (total 6.43). Lean: Philadelphia Phillies F5 ML (Bet).

Confidence: 5.2% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros NoPlay F5
F5 Win Probability
Tampa Bay Rays
51.5%
Houston Astros
48.5%
No side meets confidence threshold
2.46
Tampa Bay Rays Runs
5.00
Total
2.54
Houston Astros Runs
Tampa Bay Rays
Houston Astros
Starting Pitchers
Mason Englert Starter Peter Lambert
3.82 ERA 3.26
1.37 WHIP 1.15
Recent Offense
4.67 L7 RPG 5.00
4.63 L30 RPG 4.46
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Houston Astros Peter Lambert (3.51 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.3 K/9) vs Tampa Bay Rays Mason Englert (3.82 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 8.4 K/9). Houston Astros offense: 4.52 RPG season, 5.17 L7, 4.52 L30. Tampa Bay Rays offense: 4.61 RPG season, 5.83 L7, 4.56 L30. Model F5: Houston Astros 48.5% / Tampa Bay Rays 51.5%. Projected: Houston Astros 2.54, Tampa Bay Rays 2.46 (total 5.00). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 1.5% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies NoPlay F5
F5 Win Probability
San Francisco Giants
50.2%
Colorado Rockies
49.8%
No side meets confidence threshold
3.17
San Francisco Giants Runs
7.73
Total
4.57
Colorado Rockies Runs
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers
Tyler Mahle Starter Tanner Gordon
5.70 ERA 6.95
1.49 WHIP 1.59
Recent Offense
3.50 L7 RPG 2.67
4.16 L30 RPG 5.93
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Colorado Rockies Tanner Gordon (6.69 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 8.8 K/9) vs San Francisco Giants Tyler Mahle (5.67 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 8.7 K/9). Colorado Rockies offense: 4.84 RPG season, 7.29 L7, 6.07 L30. San Francisco Giants offense: 4.07 RPG season, 4.00 L7, 4.32 L30. Model F5: Colorado Rockies 49.8% / San Francisco Giants 50.2%. Projected: Colorado Rockies 4.57, San Francisco Giants 3.17 (total 7.73). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 0.2% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians NoPlay F5
F5 Win Probability
Chicago White Sox
50.4%
Cleveland Guardians
49.6%
No side meets confidence threshold
2.22
Chicago White Sox Runs
4.32
Total
2.10
Cleveland Guardians Runs
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Guardians
Starting Pitchers
Chris Murphy Starter Tanner Bibee
3.79 ERA 4.06
1.37 WHIP 1.14
Recent Offense
4.33 L7 RPG 3.83
4.89 L30 RPG 3.84
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Cleveland Guardians Tanner Bibee (3.69 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 7.3 K/9) vs Chicago White Sox Chris Murphy (3.79 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 8.5 K/9). Cleveland Guardians offense: 3.96 RPG season, 4.43 L7, 3.54 L30. Chicago White Sox offense: 4.78 RPG season, 4.71 L7, 4.92 L30. Model F5: Cleveland Guardians 49.6% / Chicago White Sox 50.4%. Projected: Cleveland Guardians 2.10, Chicago White Sox 2.22 (total 4.32). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 0.4% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds Bet F5
F5 Win Probability
Baltimore Orioles ★
55.2%
Cincinnati Reds
44.8%
2.79
Baltimore Orioles Runs
4.65
Total
1.86
Cincinnati Reds Runs
Baltimore Orioles ★
Cincinnati Reds
Starting Pitchers
Kyle Bradish Starter Nick Lodolo
3.75 ERA 4.68
1.40 WHIP 1.46
Recent Offense
5.17 L7 RPG 3.83
4.24 L30 RPG 4.04
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Cincinnati Reds Nick Lodolo (5.05 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 7.4 K/9) vs Baltimore Orioles Kyle Bradish (3.77 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 9.3 K/9). Cincinnati Reds offense: 4.19 RPG season, 3.29 L7, 3.89 L30. Baltimore Orioles offense: 4.60 RPG season, 4.33 L7, 4.67 L30. Model F5: Cincinnati Reds 44.8% / Baltimore Orioles 55.2%. Projected: Cincinnati Reds 1.86, Baltimore Orioles 2.79 (total 4.65). Lean: Baltimore Orioles F5 ML (Bet).

Confidence: 5.2% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs NoPlay F5
F5 Win Probability
St. Louis Cardinals
48.2%
Chicago Cubs
51.8%
No side meets confidence threshold
3.21
St. Louis Cardinals Runs
7.40
Total
4.19
Chicago Cubs Runs
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers
Matthew Liberatore Starter Javier Assad
5.34 ERA 4.15
1.53 WHIP 1.10
Recent Offense
3.29 L7 RPG 4.83
4.22 L30 RPG 6.24
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Chicago Cubs Javier Assad (4.53 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 5.5 K/9) vs St. Louis Cardinals Matthew Liberatore (5.33 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 8.7 K/9). Chicago Cubs offense: 5.05 RPG season, 6.67 L7, 5.89 L30. St. Louis Cardinals offense: 4.64 RPG season, 6.50 L7, 5.46 L30. Model F5: Chicago Cubs 51.8% / St. Louis Cardinals 48.2%. Projected: Chicago Cubs 4.19, St. Louis Cardinals 3.21 (total 7.40). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 1.8% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves NoPlay F5
F5 Win Probability
New York Mets
49.7%
Atlanta Braves
50.3%
No side meets confidence threshold
1.41
New York Mets Runs
3.74
Total
2.33
Atlanta Braves Runs
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves
Starting Pitchers
Nolan McLean Starter Martín Pérez
3.73 ERA 3.27
1.12 WHIP 1.16
Recent Offense
4.83 L7 RPG 3.83
4.37 L30 RPG 4.08
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Atlanta Braves Martín Pérez (3.27 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.1 K/9) vs New York Mets Nolan McLean (3.78 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 10.7 K/9). Atlanta Braves offense: 4.85 RPG season, 5.67 L7, 3.88 L30. New York Mets offense: 3.96 RPG season, 2.83 L7, 3.74 L30. Model F5: Atlanta Braves 50.3% / New York Mets 49.7%. Projected: Atlanta Braves 2.33, New York Mets 1.41 (total 3.74). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 0.3% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Miami Marlins @ Athletics NoPlay F5
F5 Win Probability
Miami Marlins
49.2%
Athletics
50.8%
No side meets confidence threshold
2.65
Miami Marlins Runs
4.89
Total
2.24
Athletics Runs
Miami Marlins
Athletics
Starting Pitchers
Eury Pérez Starter Gage Jump
3.84 ERA 3.77
1.10 WHIP 1.30
Recent Offense
3.50 L7 RPG 1.00
5.12 L30 RPG 4.27
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Athletics Gage Jump (2.93 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.0 K/9) vs Miami Marlins Eury Pérez (4.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10.1 K/9). Athletics offense: 4.58 RPG season, 3.67 L7, 5.30 L30. Miami Marlins offense: 4.54 RPG season, 7.29 L7, 5.22 L30. Model F5: Athletics 50.8% / Miami Marlins 49.2%. Projected: Athletics 2.24, Miami Marlins 2.65 (total 4.89). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 0.8% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks Lean F5
F5 Win Probability
Milwaukee Brewers
45.9%
Arizona Diamondbacks
54.1%
No side meets confidence threshold
1.76
Milwaukee Brewers Runs
4.31
Total
2.55
Arizona Diamondbacks Runs
Milwaukee Brewers
Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers
Brandon Sproat Starter Eduardo Rodriguez
5.13 ERA 2.25
1.37 WHIP 1.16
Recent Offense
5.14 L7 RPG 5.17
4.39 L30 RPG 4.65
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Arizona Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (2.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 6.3 K/9) vs Milwaukee Brewers Brandon Sproat (5.28 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 9.6 K/9). Arizona Diamondbacks offense: 4.26 RPG season, 4.33 L7, 3.81 L30. Milwaukee Brewers offense: 5.13 RPG season, 4.43 L7, 5.37 L30. Model F5: Arizona Diamondbacks 54.1% / Milwaukee Brewers 45.9%. Projected: Arizona Diamondbacks 2.55, Milwaukee Brewers 1.76 (total 4.31). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 4.1% above 50% MLB_F5_V1