F5 Predictions

First 5 Innings Model V1 — model confidence only, no sportsbook edge
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8 game(s)

Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals NoPlay F5
F5 Win Probability
Houston Astros
49.0%
Washington Nationals
51.0%
No side meets confidence threshold
2.72
Houston Astros Runs
6.53
Total
3.81
Washington Nationals Runs
Houston Astros
Washington Nationals
Starting Pitchers
Mike Burrows Starter Miles Mikolas
5.58 ERA 5.78
1.51 WHIP 1.33
Recent Offense
5.00 L7 RPG 3.80
4.46 L30 RPG 5.15
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Washington Nationals Miles Mikolas (5.44 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 5.0 K/9) vs Houston Astros Mike Burrows (5.58 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 7.2 K/9). Washington Nationals offense: 5.33 RPG season, 6.00 L7, 5.19 L30. Houston Astros offense: 4.49 RPG season, 4.33 L7, 4.41 L30. Model F5: Washington Nationals 51.0% / Houston Astros 49.0%. Projected: Washington Nationals 3.81, Houston Astros 2.72 (total 6.53). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 1.0% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays Bet F5
F5 Win Probability
New York Yankees ★
57.3%
Tampa Bay Rays
42.7%
1.64
New York Yankees Runs
3.15
Total
1.51
Tampa Bay Rays Runs
New York Yankees ★
Tampa Bay Rays
Starting Pitchers
Cam Schlittler Starter Griffin Jax
2.01 ERA 3.60
0.93 WHIP 1.22
Recent Offense
5.00 L7 RPG 4.67
4.15 L30 RPG 4.63
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Tampa Bay Rays Griffin Jax (3.45 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.7 K/9) vs New York Yankees Cam Schlittler (2.08 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 10.6 K/9). Tampa Bay Rays offense: 4.55 RPG season, 5.00 L7, 4.33 L30. New York Yankees offense: 4.80 RPG season, 3.00 L7, 4.19 L30. Model F5: Tampa Bay Rays 42.7% / New York Yankees 57.3%. Projected: Tampa Bay Rays 1.51, New York Yankees 1.64 (total 3.15). Lean: New York Yankees F5 ML (Bet).

Confidence: 7.3% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals Lean F5
F5 Win Probability
Milwaukee Brewers
54.4%
St. Louis Cardinals
45.6%
No side meets confidence threshold
2.70
Milwaukee Brewers Runs
5.43
Total
2.73
St. Louis Cardinals Runs
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
Starting Pitchers
Shane Drohan Starter Dustin May
2.97 ERA 4.55
1.24 WHIP 1.25
Recent Offense
5.14 L7 RPG 3.29
4.39 L30 RPG 4.22
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: St. Louis Cardinals Dustin May (4.80 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.4 K/9) vs Milwaukee Brewers Shane Drohan (3.12 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 9.3 K/9). St. Louis Cardinals offense: 4.63 RPG season, 6.83 L7, 5.23 L30. Milwaukee Brewers offense: 5.10 RPG season, 4.43 L7, 5.15 L30. Model F5: St. Louis Cardinals 45.6% / Milwaukee Brewers 54.4%. Projected: St. Louis Cardinals 2.73, Milwaukee Brewers 2.70 (total 5.43). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 4.4% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants Lean F5
F5 Win Probability
Toronto Blue Jays
52.3%
San Francisco Giants
47.7%
No side meets confidence threshold
1.59
Toronto Blue Jays Runs
3.76
Total
2.18
San Francisco Giants Runs
Toronto Blue Jays
San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers
Kevin Gausman Starter Landen Roupp
4.32 ERA 4.55
1.22 WHIP 1.37
Recent Offense
7.00 L7 RPG 3.50
4.08 L30 RPG 4.16
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: San Francisco Giants Landen Roupp (4.55 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 10.0 K/9) vs Toronto Blue Jays Kevin Gausman (4.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.9 K/9). San Francisco Giants offense: 4.09 RPG season, 4.50 L7, 3.84 L30. Toronto Blue Jays offense: 3.96 RPG season, 2.17 L7, 3.69 L30. Model F5: San Francisco Giants 47.7% / Toronto Blue Jays 52.3%. Projected: San Francisco Giants 2.18, Toronto Blue Jays 1.59 (total 3.76). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 2.3% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres NoPlay F5
F5 Win Probability
Arizona Diamondbacks
50.1%
San Diego Padres
49.9%
No side meets confidence threshold
2.45
Arizona Diamondbacks Runs
5.00
Total
2.56
San Diego Padres Runs
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers
Brandon Pfaadt Starter Walker Buehler
4.84 ERA 5.07
1.34 WHIP 1.39
Recent Offense
5.17 L7 RPG 5.17
4.65 L30 RPG 4.15
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: San Diego Padres Walker Buehler (4.61 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 8.3 K/9) vs Arizona Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (5.40 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 6.9 K/9). San Diego Padres offense: 3.91 RPG season, 3.86 L7, 4.19 L30. Arizona Diamondbacks offense: 4.24 RPG season, 4.50 L7, 3.85 L30. Model F5: San Diego Padres 49.9% / Arizona Diamondbacks 50.1%. Projected: San Diego Padres 2.56, Arizona Diamondbacks 2.45 (total 5.00). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 0.1% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers NoPlay F5
F5 Win Probability
Colorado Rockies
49.3%
Los Angeles Dodgers
50.7%
No side meets confidence threshold
4.16
Colorado Rockies Runs
8.77
Total
4.60
Los Angeles Dodgers Runs
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting Pitchers
Kyle Freeland Starter Eric Lauer
7.46 ERA 4.84
1.61 WHIP 1.27
Recent Offense
2.67 L7 RPG 3.00
5.93 L30 RPG 4.77
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Los Angeles Dodgers Eric Lauer (4.84 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 5.7 K/9) vs Colorado Rockies Kyle Freeland (7.25 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 8.0 K/9). Los Angeles Dodgers offense: 5.31 RPG season, 5.71 L7, 5.63 L30. Colorado Rockies offense: 4.87 RPG season, 8.00 L7, 6.07 L30. Model F5: Los Angeles Dodgers 50.7% / Colorado Rockies 49.3%. Projected: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.60, Colorado Rockies 4.16 (total 8.77). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 0.7% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals StrongBet F5
F5 Win Probability
Philadelphia Phillies ★
63.2%
Kansas City Royals
36.8%
3.44
Philadelphia Phillies Runs
4.53
Total
1.10
Kansas City Royals Runs
Philadelphia Phillies ★
Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers
Cristopher Sánchez Starter Noah Cameron
2.62 ERA 4.77
1.19 WHIP 1.45
Recent Offense
3.50 L7 RPG 4.50
5.15 L30 RPG 4.89
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Kansas City Royals Noah Cameron (4.95 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 8.1 K/9) vs Philadelphia Phillies Cristopher Sánchez (2.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 10.5 K/9). Kansas City Royals offense: 4.10 RPG season, 2.40 L7, 4.62 L30. Philadelphia Phillies offense: 4.47 RPG season, 5.67 L7, 5.63 L30. Model F5: Kansas City Royals 36.8% / Philadelphia Phillies 63.2%. Projected: Kansas City Royals 1.10, Philadelphia Phillies 3.44 (total 4.53). Lean: Philadelphia Phillies F5 ML (StrongBet).

Confidence: 13.2% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves Lean F5
F5 Win Probability
New York Mets
47.0%
Atlanta Braves
53.0%
No side meets confidence threshold
1.81
New York Mets Runs
5.22
Total
3.41
Atlanta Braves Runs
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves
Starting Pitchers
Freddy Peralta Starter Reynaldo López
4.68 ERA 3.18
1.42 WHIP 1.27
Recent Offense
4.83 L7 RPG 3.83
4.37 L30 RPG 4.08
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Atlanta Braves Reynaldo López (3.31 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.1 K/9) vs New York Mets Freddy Peralta (4.81 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 8.7 K/9). Atlanta Braves offense: 4.90 RPG season, 6.83 L7, 4.00 L30. New York Mets offense: 4.02 RPG season, 3.83 L7, 3.93 L30. Model F5: Atlanta Braves 53.0% / New York Mets 47.0%. Projected: Atlanta Braves 3.41, New York Mets 1.81 (total 5.22). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 3.0% above 50% MLB_F5_V1