F5 Predictions

First 5 Innings Model V1 — model confidence only, no sportsbook edge
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15 game(s)

Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals Lean F5
F5 Win Probability
Houston Astros
46.6%
Washington Nationals
53.4%
No side meets confidence threshold
2.00
Houston Astros Runs
5.05
Total
3.05
Washington Nationals Runs
Houston Astros
Washington Nationals
Starting Pitchers
Spencer Arrighetti Starter Foster Griffin
3.81 ERA 2.87
1.23 WHIP 1.04
Recent Offense
5.00 L7 RPG 3.80
4.46 L30 RPG 5.15
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Washington Nationals Foster Griffin (2.87 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 8.7 K/9) vs Houston Astros Spencer Arrighetti (3.81 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 9.1 K/9). Washington Nationals offense: 5.38 RPG season, 6.67 L7, 5.48 L30. Houston Astros offense: 4.57 RPG season, 5.50 L7, 4.56 L30. Model F5: Washington Nationals 53.4% / Houston Astros 46.6%. Projected: Washington Nationals 3.05, Houston Astros 2.00 (total 5.05). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 3.4% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers NoPlay F5
F5 Win Probability
Los Angeles Angels
51.9%
Texas Rangers
48.1%
No side meets confidence threshold
1.62
Los Angeles Angels Runs
3.75
Total
2.13
Texas Rangers Runs
Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers
Walbert Ureña Starter MacKenzie Gore
3.03 ERA 4.72
1.31 WHIP 1.31
Recent Offense
5.17 L7 RPG 5.33
4.23 L30 RPG 4.62
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Texas Rangers MacKenzie Gore (4.31 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 9.8 K/9) vs Los Angeles Angels Walbert Ureña (3.03 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 8.8 K/9). Texas Rangers offense: 4.12 RPG season, 5.00 L7, 4.35 L30. Los Angeles Angels offense: 4.37 RPG season, 2.20 L7, 4.27 L30. Model F5: Texas Rangers 48.1% / Los Angeles Angels 51.9%. Projected: Texas Rangers 2.13, Los Angeles Angels 1.62 (total 3.75). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 1.9% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays NoPlay F5
F5 Win Probability
New York Yankees
49.9%
Tampa Bay Rays
50.1%
No side meets confidence threshold
1.60
New York Yankees Runs
3.66
Total
2.06
Tampa Bay Rays Runs
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Starting Pitchers
Gerrit Cole Starter Shane McClanahan
4.01 ERA 3.05
1.20 WHIP 1.17
Recent Offense
5.00 L7 RPG 4.67
4.15 L30 RPG 4.63
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Tampa Bay Rays Shane McClanahan (3.05 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 8.8 K/9) vs New York Yankees Gerrit Cole (4.01 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.8 K/9). Tampa Bay Rays offense: 4.53 RPG season, 3.86 L7, 4.44 L30. New York Yankees offense: 4.79 RPG season, 3.50 L7, 4.15 L30. Model F5: Tampa Bay Rays 50.1% / New York Yankees 49.9%. Projected: Tampa Bay Rays 2.06, New York Yankees 1.60 (total 3.66). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 0.1% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals Lean F5
F5 Win Probability
Milwaukee Brewers
53.4%
St. Louis Cardinals
46.6%
No side meets confidence threshold
2.00
Milwaukee Brewers Runs
4.07
Total
2.07
St. Louis Cardinals Runs
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
Starting Pitchers
Kyle Harrison Starter Michael McGreevy
2.82 ERA 3.12
1.08 WHIP 1.11
Recent Offense
5.14 L7 RPG 3.29
4.39 L30 RPG 4.22
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: St. Louis Cardinals Michael McGreevy (3.12 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 5.7 K/9) vs Milwaukee Brewers Kyle Harrison (2.82 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 11.3 K/9). St. Louis Cardinals offense: 4.57 RPG season, 5.50 L7, 4.93 L30. Milwaukee Brewers offense: 5.13 RPG season, 4.63 L7, 4.93 L30. Model F5: St. Louis Cardinals 46.6% / Milwaukee Brewers 53.4%. Projected: St. Louis Cardinals 2.07, Milwaukee Brewers 2.00 (total 4.07). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 3.4% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants Lean F5
F5 Win Probability
Toronto Blue Jays
52.4%
San Francisco Giants
47.6%
No side meets confidence threshold
1.67
Toronto Blue Jays Runs
3.75
Total
2.08
San Francisco Giants Runs
Toronto Blue Jays
San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers
Dylan Cease Starter Logan Webb
2.56 ERA 3.66
1.13 WHIP 1.17
Recent Offense
7.00 L7 RPG 3.50
4.08 L30 RPG 4.16
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: San Francisco Giants Logan Webb (3.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.6 K/9) vs Toronto Blue Jays Dylan Cease (2.79 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 13.7 K/9). San Francisco Giants offense: 4.14 RPG season, 5.67 L7, 4.20 L30. Toronto Blue Jays offense: 3.98 RPG season, 3.50 L7, 3.62 L30. Model F5: San Francisco Giants 47.6% / Toronto Blue Jays 52.4%. Projected: San Francisco Giants 2.08, Toronto Blue Jays 1.67 (total 3.75). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 2.4% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Lean F5
F5 Win Probability
Arizona Diamondbacks
48.0%
San Diego Padres
52.0%
No side meets confidence threshold
1.78
Arizona Diamondbacks Runs
3.97
Total
2.19
San Diego Padres Runs
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers
Jose Cabrera Starter Michael King
4.73 ERA 3.52
1.58 WHIP 1.16
Recent Offense
5.17 L7 RPG 5.17
4.65 L30 RPG 4.15
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: San Diego Padres Michael King (3.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.8 K/9) vs Arizona Diamondbacks Jose Cabrera (4.73 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 6.9 K/9). San Diego Padres offense: 3.87 RPG season, 3.14 L7, 4.11 L30. Arizona Diamondbacks offense: 4.24 RPG season, 3.83 L7, 3.96 L30. Model F5: San Diego Padres 52.0% / Arizona Diamondbacks 48.0%. Projected: San Diego Padres 2.19, Arizona Diamondbacks 1.78 (total 3.97). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 2.0% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates Lean F5
F5 Win Probability
Atlanta Braves
52.6%
Pittsburgh Pirates
47.4%
No side meets confidence threshold
3.59
Atlanta Braves Runs
7.23
Total
3.64
Pittsburgh Pirates Runs
Atlanta Braves
Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers
Grant Holmes Starter Jared Jones
3.83 ERA 5.28
1.35 WHIP 1.38
Recent Offense
3.83 L7 RPG 6.83
4.08 L30 RPG 6.12
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Pittsburgh Pirates Jared Jones (5.28 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 9.6 K/9) vs Atlanta Braves Grant Holmes (3.83 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.8 K/9). Pittsburgh Pirates offense: 5.29 RPG season, 7.83 L7, 5.92 L30. Atlanta Braves offense: 4.90 RPG season, 6.86 L7, 4.04 L30. Model F5: Pittsburgh Pirates 47.4% / Atlanta Braves 52.6%. Projected: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.64, Atlanta Braves 3.59 (total 7.23). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 2.6% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets NoPlay F5
F5 Win Probability
Kansas City Royals
48.9%
New York Mets
51.1%
No side meets confidence threshold
2.98
Kansas City Royals Runs
6.42
Total
3.44
New York Mets Runs
Kansas City Royals
New York Mets
Starting Pitchers
Steven Cruz Starter Christian Scott
5.08 ERA 3.49
1.45 WHIP 1.35
Recent Offense
4.50 L7 RPG 4.83
4.89 L30 RPG 4.37
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: New York Mets Christian Scott (3.49 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 11.0 K/9) vs Kansas City Royals Steven Cruz (5.08 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 11.9 K/9). New York Mets offense: 4.14 RPG season, 6.33 L7, 4.30 L30. Kansas City Royals offense: 4.35 RPG season, 6.50 L7, 5.46 L30. Model F5: New York Mets 51.1% / Kansas City Royals 48.9%. Projected: New York Mets 3.44, Kansas City Royals 2.98 (total 6.42). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 1.1% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins NoPlay F5
F5 Win Probability
Cleveland Guardians
50.6%
Minnesota Twins
49.4%
No side meets confidence threshold
2.51
Cleveland Guardians Runs
5.85
Total
3.35
Minnesota Twins Runs
Cleveland Guardians
Minnesota Twins
Starting Pitchers
Slade Cecconi Starter Connor Prielipp
4.44 ERA 4.96
1.40 WHIP 1.38
Recent Offense
3.83 L7 RPG 3.83
3.84 L30 RPG 5.52
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Minnesota Twins Connor Prielipp (4.96 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 9.6 K/9) vs Cleveland Guardians Slade Cecconi (4.44 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 6.9 K/9). Minnesota Twins offense: 4.90 RPG season, 6.00 L7, 5.72 L30. Cleveland Guardians offense: 3.95 RPG season, 4.50 L7, 3.64 L30. Model F5: Minnesota Twins 49.4% / Cleveland Guardians 50.6%. Projected: Minnesota Twins 3.35, Cleveland Guardians 2.51 (total 5.85). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 0.6% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins NoPlay F5
F5 Win Probability
Seattle Mariners
50.9%
Miami Marlins
49.1%
No side meets confidence threshold
2.01
Seattle Mariners Runs
5.25
Total
3.24
Miami Marlins Runs
Seattle Mariners
Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers
George Kirby Starter Tyler Phillips
3.81 ERA 3.28
1.32 WHIP 1.36
Recent Offense
3.33 L7 RPG 3.50
3.28 L30 RPG 5.12
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Miami Marlins Tyler Phillips (3.52 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 6.8 K/9) vs Seattle Mariners George Kirby (3.81 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 7.9 K/9). Miami Marlins offense: 4.61 RPG season, 6.83 L7, 5.69 L30. Seattle Mariners offense: 4.10 RPG season, 4.20 L7, 3.81 L30. Model F5: Miami Marlins 49.1% / Seattle Mariners 50.9%. Projected: Miami Marlins 3.24, Seattle Mariners 2.01 (total 5.25). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 0.9% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers StrongBet F5
F5 Win Probability
Colorado Rockies ★
69.2%
Los Angeles Dodgers
30.8%
4.73
Colorado Rockies Runs
5.60
Total
0.86
Los Angeles Dodgers Runs
Colorado Rockies ★
Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting Pitchers
Gabriel Hughes Starter Roki Sasaki
0.00 ERA 5.40
1.00 WHIP 1.40
Recent Offense
2.67 L7 RPG 3.00
5.93 L30 RPG 4.77
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Los Angeles Dodgers Roki Sasaki (5.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 9.0 K/9) vs Colorado Rockies Gabriel Hughes (0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3.0 K/9). Los Angeles Dodgers offense: 5.31 RPG season, 4.71 L7, 5.52 L30. Colorado Rockies offense: 4.88 RPG season, 8.14 L7, 6.30 L30. Model F5: Los Angeles Dodgers 30.8% / Colorado Rockies 69.2%. Projected: Los Angeles Dodgers 0.86, Colorado Rockies 4.73 (total 5.60). Lean: Colorado Rockies F5 ML (StrongBet).

Confidence: 19.2% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Athletics @ Detroit Tigers StrongBet F5
F5 Win Probability
Athletics
40.8%
Detroit Tigers ★
59.2%
1.48
Athletics Runs
4.80
Total
3.32
Detroit Tigers Runs
Athletics
★ Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers
Jeffrey Springs Starter Troy Melton
5.79 ERA 2.05
1.38 WHIP 0.80
Recent Offense
1.00 L7 RPG 4.67
4.27 L30 RPG 4.76
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Detroit Tigers Troy Melton (2.05 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 6.6 K/9) vs Athletics Jeffrey Springs (5.79 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 7.7 K/9). Detroit Tigers offense: 4.23 RPG season, 5.00 L7, 5.00 L30. Athletics offense: 4.59 RPG season, 4.80 L7, 5.58 L30. Model F5: Detroit Tigers 59.2% / Athletics 40.8%. Projected: Detroit Tigers 3.32, Athletics 1.48 (total 4.80). Lean: Detroit Tigers F5 ML (StrongBet).

Confidence: 9.2% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds Lean F5
F5 Win Probability
Philadelphia Phillies
46.6%
Cincinnati Reds
53.4%
No side meets confidence threshold
1.65
Philadelphia Phillies Runs
3.49
Total
1.84
Cincinnati Reds Runs
Philadelphia Phillies
Cincinnati Reds
Starting Pitchers
TBD Starter Chase Burns
— ERA 2.40
— WHIP 1.08
Recent Offense
3.50 L7 RPG 3.83
5.15 L30 RPG 4.04
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Cincinnati Reds Chase Burns (2.40 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 10.8 K/9) vs Philadelphia Phillies TBD (league avg). Cincinnati Reds offense: 4.14 RPG season, 3.00 L7, 3.77 L30. Philadelphia Phillies offense: 4.42 RPG season, 4.00 L7, 5.37 L30. Model F5: Cincinnati Reds 53.4% / Philadelphia Phillies 46.6%. Projected: Cincinnati Reds 1.84, Philadelphia Phillies 1.65 (total 3.49). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 3.4% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox Lean F5
F5 Win Probability
Boston Red Sox
54.7%
Chicago White Sox
45.3%
No side meets confidence threshold
2.39
Boston Red Sox Runs
3.94
Total
1.55
Chicago White Sox Runs
Boston Red Sox
Chicago White Sox
Starting Pitchers
Jake Bennett Starter Davis Martin
3.10 ERA 3.08
0.98 WHIP 1.26
Recent Offense
4.67 L7 RPG 4.33
4.27 L30 RPG 4.89
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Chicago White Sox Davis Martin (3.08 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.4 K/9) vs Boston Red Sox Jake Bennett (3.10 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 7.0 K/9). Chicago White Sox offense: 4.77 RPG season, 3.33 L7, 4.76 L30. Boston Red Sox offense: 4.10 RPG season, 6.00 L7, 4.46 L30. Model F5: Chicago White Sox 45.3% / Boston Red Sox 54.7%. Projected: Chicago White Sox 1.55, Boston Red Sox 2.39 (total 3.94). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 4.7% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles Lean F5
F5 Win Probability
Chicago Cubs
45.7%
Baltimore Orioles
54.3%
No side meets confidence threshold
2.59
Chicago Cubs Runs
5.09
Total
2.50
Baltimore Orioles Runs
Chicago Cubs
Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers
Colin Rea Starter Dean Kremer
4.74 ERA 3.18
1.43 WHIP 0.88
Recent Offense
4.83 L7 RPG 5.17
6.24 L30 RPG 4.24
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Baltimore Orioles Dean Kremer (3.18 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 10.6 K/9) vs Chicago Cubs Colin Rea (4.74 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 6.9 K/9). Baltimore Orioles offense: 4.54 RPG season, 4.20 L7, 4.19 L30. Chicago Cubs offense: 5.06 RPG season, 7.00 L7, 6.28 L30. Model F5: Baltimore Orioles 54.3% / Chicago Cubs 45.7%. Projected: Baltimore Orioles 2.50, Chicago Cubs 2.59 (total 5.09). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 4.3% above 50% MLB_F5_V1