F5 Predictions

First 5 Innings Model V1 — model confidence only, no sportsbook edge
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15 game(s)

New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals Bet F5
F5 Win Probability
New York Yankees ★
55.8%
Washington Nationals
44.2%
3.46
New York Yankees Runs
6.68
Total
3.21
Washington Nationals Runs
New York Yankees ★
Washington Nationals
Starting Pitchers
Ryan Weathers Starter Carson Palmquist
4.29 ERA 7.11
1.25 WHIP 1.58
Recent Offense
5.00 L7 RPG 5.17
4.11 L30 RPG 5.26
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Washington Nationals Carson Palmquist (7.11 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 10.5 K/9) vs New York Yankees Ryan Weathers (4.29 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10.2 K/9). Washington Nationals offense: 5.40 RPG season, 6.33 L7, 5.62 L30. New York Yankees offense: 4.82 RPG season, 4.43 L7, 4.22 L30. Model F5: Washington Nationals 44.2% / New York Yankees 55.8%. Projected: Washington Nationals 3.21, New York Yankees 3.46 (total 6.68). Lean: New York Yankees F5 ML (Bet).

Confidence: 5.8% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers NoPlay F5
F5 Win Probability
Houston Astros
51.5%
Texas Rangers
48.5%
No side meets confidence threshold
2.26
Houston Astros Runs
4.20
Total
1.95
Texas Rangers Runs
Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers
Hunter Brown Starter Cal Quantrill
3.38 ERA 3.35
1.36 WHIP 1.17
Recent Offense
6.00 L7 RPG 5.33
4.59 L30 RPG 4.56
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Texas Rangers Cal Quantrill (3.35 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6.1 K/9) vs Houston Astros Hunter Brown (3.38 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 10.9 K/9). Texas Rangers offense: 4.12 RPG season, 3.80 L7, 4.37 L30. Houston Astros offense: 4.55 RPG season, 5.33 L7, 4.58 L30. Model F5: Texas Rangers 48.5% / Houston Astros 51.5%. Projected: Texas Rangers 1.95, Houston Astros 2.26 (total 4.20). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 1.5% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays Lean F5
F5 Win Probability
Seattle Mariners
45.6%
Tampa Bay Rays
54.4%
No side meets confidence threshold
1.47
Seattle Mariners Runs
3.75
Total
2.28
Tampa Bay Rays Runs
Seattle Mariners
Tampa Bay Rays
Starting Pitchers
Luis Castillo Starter Nick Martinez
4.79 ERA 2.61
1.33 WHIP 1.13
Recent Offense
3.33 L7 RPG 4.14
3.27 L30 RPG 4.46
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Tampa Bay Rays Nick Martinez (2.61 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 5.5 K/9) vs Seattle Mariners Luis Castillo (4.79 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8.5 K/9). Tampa Bay Rays offense: 4.51 RPG season, 3.57 L7, 4.44 L30. Seattle Mariners offense: 4.05 RPG season, 4.00 L7, 3.50 L30. Model F5: Tampa Bay Rays 54.4% / Seattle Mariners 45.6%. Projected: Tampa Bay Rays 2.28, Seattle Mariners 1.47 (total 3.75). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 4.4% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals StrongBet F5
F5 Win Probability
Atlanta Braves ★
59.2%
St. Louis Cardinals
40.8%
3.23
Atlanta Braves Runs
5.03
Total
1.80
St. Louis Cardinals Runs
Atlanta Braves ★
St. Louis Cardinals
Starting Pitchers
Chris Sale Starter Kyle Leahy
2.27 ERA 3.86
1.12 WHIP 1.45
Recent Offense
4.14 L7 RPG 3.25
4.04 L30 RPG 4.39
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: St. Louis Cardinals Kyle Leahy (3.86 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 7.6 K/9) vs Atlanta Braves Chris Sale (2.27 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 10.6 K/9). St. Louis Cardinals offense: 4.57 RPG season, 5.13 L7, 4.82 L30. Atlanta Braves offense: 4.94 RPG season, 7.29 L7, 4.20 L30. Model F5: St. Louis Cardinals 40.8% / Atlanta Braves 59.2%. Projected: St. Louis Cardinals 1.80, Atlanta Braves 3.23 (total 5.03). Lean: Atlanta Braves F5 ML (StrongBet).

Confidence: 9.2% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants Lean F5
F5 Win Probability
Colorado Rockies
47.5%
San Francisco Giants
52.5%
No side meets confidence threshold
2.80
Colorado Rockies Runs
6.57
Total
3.77
San Francisco Giants Runs
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers
Tanner Gordon Starter Robbie Ray
6.95 ERA 3.45
1.59 WHIP 1.23
Recent Offense
3.29 L7 RPG 4.43
5.89 L30 RPG 4.04
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: San Francisco Giants Robbie Ray (3.45 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.7 K/9) vs Colorado Rockies Tanner Gordon (6.95 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 9.2 K/9). San Francisco Giants offense: 4.14 RPG season, 5.14 L7, 4.28 L30. Colorado Rockies offense: 4.83 RPG season, 6.00 L7, 6.00 L30. Model F5: San Francisco Giants 52.5% / Colorado Rockies 47.5%. Projected: San Francisco Giants 3.77, Colorado Rockies 2.80 (total 6.57). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 2.5% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres Bet F5
F5 Win Probability
Toronto Blue Jays
43.8%
San Diego Padres ★
56.2%
2.20
Toronto Blue Jays Runs
5.93
Total
3.73
San Diego Padres Runs
Toronto Blue Jays
★ San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers
Shane Bieber Starter JP Sears
9.00 ERA 4.70
2.08 WHIP 1.37
Recent Offense
6.00 L7 RPG 4.43
3.96 L30 RPG 4.32
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: San Diego Padres JP Sears (4.70 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 8.4 K/9) vs Toronto Blue Jays Shane Bieber (9.00 ERA, 2.08 WHIP, 6.2 K/9). San Diego Padres offense: 3.90 RPG season, 3.29 L7, 4.19 L30. Toronto Blue Jays offense: 4.04 RPG season, 3.67 L7, 3.96 L30. Model F5: San Diego Padres 56.2% / Toronto Blue Jays 43.8%. Projected: San Diego Padres 3.73, Toronto Blue Jays 2.20 (total 5.93). Lean: San Diego Padres F5 ML (Bet).

Confidence: 6.2% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Bet F5
F5 Win Probability
Milwaukee Brewers
44.6%
Pittsburgh Pirates ★
55.4%
2.06
Milwaukee Brewers Runs
5.94
Total
3.88
Pittsburgh Pirates Runs
Milwaukee Brewers
★ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers
TBD Starter TBD
— ERA —
— WHIP —
Recent Offense
— L7 RPG —
— L30 RPG —
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Pittsburgh Pirates Braxton Ashcraft (3.24 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.2 K/9) vs Milwaukee Brewers Brandon Sproat (5.13 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 9.6 K/9). Pittsburgh Pirates offense: 5.23 RPG season, 6.67 L7, 5.78 L30. Milwaukee Brewers offense: 5.12 RPG season, 5.00 L7, 4.54 L30. Model F5: Pittsburgh Pirates 55.4% / Milwaukee Brewers 44.6%. Projected: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.88, Milwaukee Brewers 2.06 (total 5.94). Lean: Pittsburgh Pirates F5 ML (Bet).

Confidence: 5.4% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets Lean F5
F5 Win Probability
Boston Red Sox
54.4%
New York Mets
45.6%
No side meets confidence threshold
2.49
Boston Red Sox Runs
4.77
Total
2.27
New York Mets Runs
Boston Red Sox
New York Mets
Starting Pitchers
Sonny Gray Starter Nolan McLean
2.61 ERA 3.73
1.10 WHIP 1.12
Recent Offense
4.67 L7 RPG 5.14
4.33 L30 RPG 4.25
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: New York Mets Nolan McLean (3.73 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 10.5 K/9) vs Boston Red Sox Sonny Gray (2.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.3 K/9). New York Mets offense: 4.19 RPG season, 6.86 L7, 4.61 L30. Boston Red Sox offense: 4.09 RPG season, 5.83 L7, 4.58 L30. Model F5: New York Mets 45.6% / Boston Red Sox 54.4%. Projected: New York Mets 2.27, Boston Red Sox 2.49 (total 4.77). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 4.4% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins Bet F5
F5 Win Probability
Los Angeles Angels
42.9%
Minnesota Twins ★
57.1%
2.52
Los Angeles Angels Runs
7.31
Total
4.79
Minnesota Twins Runs
Los Angeles Angels
★ Minnesota Twins
Starting Pitchers
Grayson Rodriguez Starter Zebby Matthews
8.06 ERA 4.43
1.83 WHIP 1.16
Recent Offense
5.17 L7 RPG 3.83
4.37 L30 RPG 5.54
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Minnesota Twins Zebby Matthews (4.43 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.5 K/9) vs Los Angeles Angels Grayson Rodriguez (8.06 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 8.6 K/9). Minnesota Twins offense: 4.88 RPG season, 5.00 L7, 5.65 L30. Los Angeles Angels offense: 4.48 RPG season, 5.00 L7, 4.46 L30. Model F5: Minnesota Twins 57.1% / Los Angeles Angels 42.9%. Projected: Minnesota Twins 4.79, Los Angeles Angels 2.52 (total 7.31). Lean: Minnesota Twins F5 ML (Bet).

Confidence: 7.1% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins Lean F5
F5 Win Probability
Cleveland Guardians
53.4%
Miami Marlins
46.6%
No side meets confidence threshold
1.89
Cleveland Guardians Runs
4.47
Total
2.58
Miami Marlins Runs
Cleveland Guardians
Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers
Parker Messick Starter Sandy Alcantara
2.80 ERA 4.00
1.08 WHIP 1.25
Recent Offense
3.83 L7 RPG 3.50
3.81 L30 RPG 5.00
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Miami Marlins Sandy Alcantara (4.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6.7 K/9) vs Cleveland Guardians Parker Messick (2.80 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.3 K/9). Miami Marlins offense: 4.62 RPG season, 7.33 L7, 5.48 L30. Cleveland Guardians offense: 3.97 RPG season, 3.67 L7, 3.76 L30. Model F5: Miami Marlins 46.6% / Cleveland Guardians 53.4%. Projected: Miami Marlins 2.58, Cleveland Guardians 1.89 (total 4.47). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 3.4% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers Bet F5
F5 Win Probability
Arizona Diamondbacks ★
56.5%
Los Angeles Dodgers
43.5%
2.14
Arizona Diamondbacks Runs
3.78
Total
1.64
Los Angeles Dodgers Runs
Arizona Diamondbacks ★
Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting Pitchers
Eduardo Rodriguez Starter Kyle Hurt
2.25 ERA 4.55
1.16 WHIP 1.35
Recent Offense
5.57 L7 RPG 3.83
4.52 L30 RPG 4.85
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Los Angeles Dodgers Kyle Hurt (4.55 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 11.5 K/9) vs Arizona Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (2.25 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 6.2 K/9). Los Angeles Dodgers offense: 5.30 RPG season, 4.00 L7, 5.22 L30. Arizona Diamondbacks offense: 4.23 RPG season, 3.71 L7, 3.85 L30. Model F5: Los Angeles Dodgers 43.5% / Arizona Diamondbacks 56.5%. Projected: Los Angeles Dodgers 1.64, Arizona Diamondbacks 2.14 (total 3.78). Lean: Arizona Diamondbacks F5 ML (Bet).

Confidence: 6.5% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers NoPlay F5
F5 Win Probability
Philadelphia Phillies
49.4%
Detroit Tigers
50.6%
No side meets confidence threshold
2.37
Philadelphia Phillies Runs
5.74
Total
3.37
Detroit Tigers Runs
Philadelphia Phillies
Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers
Aaron Nola Starter Jack Flaherty
5.87 ERA 4.60
1.46 WHIP 1.45
Recent Offense
3.14 L7 RPG 4.67
5.29 L30 RPG 4.62
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Detroit Tigers Jack Flaherty (4.60 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 10.9 K/9) vs Philadelphia Phillies Aaron Nola (5.87 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 9.2 K/9). Detroit Tigers offense: 4.25 RPG season, 5.00 L7, 4.81 L30. Philadelphia Phillies offense: 4.39 RPG season, 3.17 L7, 5.33 L30. Model F5: Detroit Tigers 50.6% / Philadelphia Phillies 49.4%. Projected: Detroit Tigers 3.37, Philadelphia Phillies 2.37 (total 5.74). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 0.6% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds StrongBet F5
F5 Win Probability
Chicago Cubs ★
70.4%
Cincinnati Reds
29.6%
10.47
Chicago Cubs Runs
12.27
Total
1.80
Cincinnati Reds Runs
Chicago Cubs ★
Cincinnati Reds
Starting Pitchers
Shota Imanaga Starter Hunter Greene
4.28 ERA 21.60
1.10 WHIP 3.30
Recent Offense
4.83 L7 RPG 3.83
6.23 L30 RPG 3.96
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Cincinnati Reds Hunter Greene (21.60 ERA, 3.30 WHIP, 20.8 K/9) vs Chicago Cubs Shota Imanaga (4.28 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.7 K/9). Cincinnati Reds offense: 4.17 RPG season, 3.33 L7, 3.92 L30. Chicago Cubs offense: 5.07 RPG season, 3.83 L7, 6.35 L30. Model F5: Cincinnati Reds 29.6% / Chicago Cubs 70.4%. Projected: Cincinnati Reds 1.80, Chicago Cubs 10.47 (total 12.27). Lean: Chicago Cubs F5 ML (StrongBet).

Confidence: 20.4% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Athletics @ Chicago White Sox Bet F5
F5 Win Probability
Athletics
43.2%
Chicago White Sox ★
56.8%
1.81
Athletics Runs
4.53
Total
2.72
Chicago White Sox Runs
Athletics
★ Chicago White Sox
Starting Pitchers
Jacob Lopez Starter Sean Burke
7.04 ERA 3.56
1.84 WHIP 1.22
Recent Offense
1.00 L7 RPG 4.33
4.37 L30 RPG 4.74
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Chicago White Sox Sean Burke (3.56 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.7 K/9) vs Athletics Jacob Lopez (7.04 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 7.1 K/9). Chicago White Sox offense: 4.67 RPG season, 2.50 L7, 4.39 L30. Athletics offense: 4.52 RPG season, 3.17 L7, 4.85 L30. Model F5: Chicago White Sox 56.8% / Athletics 43.2%. Projected: Chicago White Sox 2.72, Athletics 1.81 (total 4.53). Lean: Chicago White Sox F5 ML (Bet).

Confidence: 6.8% above 50% MLB_F5_V1
Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles NoPlay F5
F5 Win Probability
Kansas City Royals
48.6%
Baltimore Orioles
51.4%
No side meets confidence threshold
3.04
Kansas City Royals Runs
5.76
Total
2.72
Baltimore Orioles Runs
Kansas City Royals
Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers
Luinder Avila Starter Brandon Young
5.05 ERA 3.38
1.59 WHIP 1.36
Recent Offense
6.00 L7 RPG 5.17
4.96 L30 RPG 4.19
Model reasoning

F5 Starters: Baltimore Orioles Brandon Young (3.38 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.2 K/9) vs Kansas City Royals Luinder Avila (5.05 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 8.3 K/9). Baltimore Orioles offense: 4.55 RPG season, 4.17 L7, 4.27 L30. Kansas City Royals offense: 4.31 RPG season, 7.00 L7, 5.26 L30. Model F5: Baltimore Orioles 51.4% / Kansas City Royals 48.6%. Projected: Baltimore Orioles 2.72, Kansas City Royals 3.04 (total 5.76). No F5 side meets confidence threshold.

Confidence: 1.4% above 50% MLB_F5_V1